We're coming down to it. You can sign up for Fantasy Basho on Fantasizr to set your team for Day One. If you need help, here are our regular Power Rankings.
---------------------------------------------------------
The Power Rankings are published here on FantasyBasho.com before each and every tournament. They also use the same formula each time, to keep some consistency.
But if I'm being honest, I only really know what they'll look like when I put it together. I obviously know who did well in the last basho. I just don't think about it in terms of this formula. This exercise is a check on my subjectivity. I don't think of the Power Rankings as prescriptive. They don't really know who WILL be good, they show how everyone has performed recently with a comparable number. The final numbers are also fairly bunched up, so no one stands out.
Yet if you wanted these to dampen your enthusiasm about one particular rikishi, these Power Rankings may not do that. Full notes will be below the chart. But first, a reminder of how these are calculated.
Take the Fantasy Basho score (2 points for each win, 1 point for a kinboshi, 1 point for a Special Prize) for a tournament, adding 10 points for a yusho and 5 for a Jun-Yusho.
Add up the last five scores with a modifier. Multiply the most recent basho score by 5, the next most recent by 4, the third most recent by 3, the fourth most recent by 2, and the fifth most recent by 1.
For basho in Juryo, take the win total for that tournament and multiply by 1.5. For basho below Juryo, take the win total from that basho.
Add a bonus score, which is the budget number for that rikishi in the upcoming basho.
You likely didn't need a formula to tell you that Onosato is very good, but this formula says he is the best rikishi in sumo coming into Nagoya. It is just barely ahead of Kotozakura, but he is still in the lead. Of course, he has gone 34-11 in his last three basho, with a Yusho, Jun-Yusho, and 5 Special Prizes. That's basically the shape of an Ozeki run, except for three important caveats. 1) That is his first three Makuuchi basho. 2) The first basho was at Maegashira #15. 3) Only the third basho was in the Sanyaku. But Onosato has the most wins in the last three basho, and the Power Rankings reflect that despite the "4" sitting there for the Nagoya 2023 basho. That would be when he got 4 wins in Makushita. Onosato is the top ranked rikishi by this system, and he may also be underrated by them. They don't know about his Amateur Yokozuna titles or his model size or his skills. They just know he has been winning recently.
Kotozakura and Hoshoryu, the two healthy Ozeki, are logically second and third. Kotozakura is well ahead of Hoshoryu by this scale. Both have been consistent over the last year, and can be considered proven Ozeki. Really, this is a mark of Hoshoryu having one or two slip-ups he shouldn't per basho. Since there are the bonuses for Yusho and Jun-Yusho, being one win off the leaderboard makes a difference.
After Hoshoryu is a big group of rikishi largely made up of the rest of Sanyaku and upper Maegashira. There aren't really pushovers towards the top of the Banzuke, and this is another way to show it.
At the bottom, there is a big question: Are Terunofuji and Takakeisho really the worst rikishi heading into the Nagoya basho? No, and that is not a way to read the Power Rankings. What this does reflect is that Takakeisho has pulled out of 3 of the last 6 basho, while Terunofuji has pulled out of 5 of the last 6 basho. They also each have a Yusho in the last year, and their ranks allow them to pull out of basho with less consequences than a Maegashira. But if anyone asked a sumo fan, "What rikishi is most likely to get 0 wins?" the first answer would be Terunofuji. Takakeisho is probably second, except he needs to keep his Ozeki rank.
Similarly, Asanoyama and Wakatakakage are ranked quite low here because they have zeroes on the sheet for different reasons. Yes, a healthy Asanoyama could clean up in lower-Maegashira, and if Wakatakakage is on his Sekiwake-level when he comes back he has a chance for ten wins. But the Power Rankings can only work with the numbers at hand. That makes for a nice splash of cold water.
Sumo begins on Sunday. Then we can see if the Power Rankings see it well enough.
Comments