We're under a week until live action. As you try to sort out your first lineup on Fantasizr, here's the Power Rankings to help you decide.
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It's that time once again, to look at the pre-basho Power Rankings. As I do each time, I look back at the Power Rankings for the previous basho. Knowing what we know now about how the Nagoya basho played out, the Nagoya Power Rankings don't look great.
I did not intend to build the Power Rankings as a predictive tool, showing who was going to win the next basho. It intends to show the strength of each rikishi coming into the upcoming basho. It's a way to systematize and organize some basic information--how the 42 Makuuchi rikishi have performed over the last year. So even if it isn't meant to say "The number one in the Power Rankings will win the yusho," there should be some correlation to performance.
The bottom five in Nagoya's rankings were Nishikigi, Asanoyama, Wakatakakage, Takakeisho, and Terunofuji. Nishikigi earned five wins. Asanoyama pulled out with injury after starting 3-2. Wakatakakage collected 11 wins. Takakeisho only managed a 5-10 record while trying to maintain his Ozeki status. Terunofuji got 12 wins and the yusho via playoff. That is, to say the least, a mixed bag.
Asanoyama, Takakeisho, and Terunofuji all had 0's for the Natsu basho, because they pulled out because of injury. Terunofuji simply proved when he does compete, he can win a yusho. An assessment of a year's worth of tournaments shows he rarely competes. Nishikigi had just been plain terrible for a few basho. Wakatakakage is the obvious issue.
Wakatakakage did not compete in July or September 2023 as he was recovering from a knee injury. He came back for the November 2023 basho at Makushita #6. He won 5 wins and then 7 (and a yusho) in two Makushita tournaments. That got him to Juryo. In two Juryo basho, he earned 9 and 14 wins (and a yusho) to get back to Makuuchi in Nagoya. So he had some low numbers in his Nagoya Power Rankings formula, although there was an argument he was on a roll and the Power Rankings just missed it.
And he did go 11-4 from Maegashira #14 in Nagoya. For the Aki Power Rankings, Wakatakakage is in a better position. He isn't towards the very top, though. Such caution is one of the great values of a system like this. Wakatakakage is in his second basho back in the top division after a serious injury, moving back into mid-Maegashira for a sterner test. His 11 wins in Nagoya are a good sign he can still compete at a high level, but it isn't a guarantee. The information provided by the previous five basho provides some pause from saying Wakatakakage is about to dominate.
NOTES:
Onosato's place at the top of these rankings is a reminder that he has been excellent as a Makuuchi wrestler in his four top-division bashos. His Nagoya was kind of a disappointment because he went 9-6 in his Sekiwake debut, also earning a Special Prize since he beat the Yokozuna. There are two Ozeki who have been quite good of late, and a Yokozuna who dominates when he competes. Claiming Onosato is THE favorite would be strong, but he's one of the handful of top yusho contenders before the basho starts. And he's barely been in Makuuchi.
Behind Onosato by a small margin is Kotozakura, and then behind him by a largermargin is Hoshoryu. However, these three rikishi stand above the rest of the pack. Kotozakura and Hoshoryu are Ozeki who have conistently performed well for the last year. Since they are Ozeki, it is slightly disappointing that they aren't taking their yusho shots down to the wire more. Clearly, though, they are deserving Ozeki who rise above the other sekitori.
After them is an odd hodgepodge, featuring Takanosho, Daieisho, Hiradoumi, Abi, Terunofuji, Churanoumi, Atamifuji, and Kotoshoho. Let's just say that all of these men have had some level of recent success, but an argument for their topping the Yusho Arasoi on Day Fifteen involves a lot of "What Ifs." The most straightforward is Terunofuji, who seems guaranteed to be a contender if he finishes the basho. But finishing a basho seems to be about 1-in-3 odds. Everyone else is some combination of "had his moments," "could take a step up," and "potentially could put together a nice run." That means they also could fall apart and collect quite a few losses.
The big open question marks (besides Wakatakakage, as noted above) are Shirokuma and Onokatsu. Both are making their Makuuchi debuts, which means they have the lower point totals of lower divisions for the previous year. For Shirokuma, this was a series of middling Juryo performances until he won the yusho in the Second Division in Nagoya with 12 wins. Onokatsu has had a more meteoric rise, debuting a year ago as a Makushita Tsukedashi (the last to start at Makushita #15 before recent rule changes.) His 5-6-5-0 over the last four basho on the chart are actually a sign of immense talent. He went from amateur to top division wrestler in under a year. Take the caution on them with a grain of salt, but also let the Power Rankings remind you to take some caution with the debutants.
The very bottom is Nishikigi, who has had about the worst year you can have while staying in Makuuchi. He was a Komusubi a year ago, and has had one bare kachi-koshi in his last six tournaments. That has made him tumble down the Banzuke. But he is still a Maegashira, and that's what matters.
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